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Use Code VALUES for 50% Discount
Get started with 50% off your first month using code VALUES — because your wins come first. We built this model to deliver value, not drain your wallet. The real profit? It's in your picks, not ours.
Predictive Model Overview
How to Use the Model for Profit
To truly capitalize, we recommend the following betting strategy:
A. Flat Betting
Bet 1–3% of your bankroll on every pick rated 65%+ confidence.
Ideal for consistent growth
Controls variance
B. Fractional Kelly (Advanced)
Use 0.5x Kelly Criterion based on edge vs. market-implied probability.
Maximizes long-term ROI
Adjusts stake by confidence level
C. Focus on Market Gaps
Only bet when the model’s predicted win probability is 10%+ higher than the implied odds.
This is where the real value lives
4. Track & Adjust
Use our prediction archive ("The Pudding") to analyze performance by confidence level and adjust strategy accordingly.
Why This Model Wins
No reliance on sportsbook odds
Built from real, cleaned NBA data
Especially deadly on underdog value plays
Predicts true outcomes, not public expectations
Outperforms standard models in ROI and accuracy
Final Word
Most bettors try to beat the market at its own game.
This model doesn’t play that game. It builds its own.
If you’re ready to bet smarter—not harder—and follow a system built on proven data science, this is your edge.
This isn’t another tip sheet—it’s an AI-powered prediction engine designed to identify bets the market fundamentally misunderstands.
Our model was trained on NBA data from 2017 to 2022 and validated on the 2024–25 season, where it achieved:
75% win accuracy on underdog picks at 70% confidence
60%+ accuracy on all picks flagged above 65% confidence
These results are based on real games, real data, and actual market odds—not hypotheticals.
How It Works
Our model is built with XGBoost, a leading machine learning algorithm, and trained using thousands of NBA games. Every layer of the model is built around true win prediction not betting lines or market consensus. The model is able to detect the most impactful variables and weigh them appropriately based on statistical methods, in order to create highly accurate predictions based on a vast dataset.
We scraped raw data, cleaned and processed the data, and engineered features using Python. This includes:
Advanced Metrics (eFG%, ORtg, DRtg, AST/TOV, etc.)
Rolling team efficiency
Rest, fatigue, and travel effects
Home/away-specific performance
Historical matchup edges
What makes it powerful is what it doesn’t do:
It does not factor in sportsbook odds—because the model performs best when the market is wrong.
Where the Profit Happens
The most profitable plays come when:
The model gives a team a 60%+ win probability
The sportsbook lists them as an underdog (e.g., +180 to +250)
This gap creates what’s known as positive expected value (EV)—and that’s where long-term profit lives. In 2024–25, this strategy delivered ROI exceeding 80% on those high-confidence underdog plays.
Strategic Predictive Insights
Our strategy focuses on maximizing profitability by providing high-value underdog picks and transparent results.
Profit Maximization
How to Maximize Long-Term Returns: The model has been tested with a consistent betting method: $100 bet per game Starting bankroll of $1,000 Confidence-based filtering at thresholds of 55% to 80% Clear win/loss outcome accounting From this structure, we advise the following for sustained profit: Focus on 60–70% Confidence Window This zone balances volume with profitability. It has shown to deliver 5–10x bankroll multipliers across 100+ bet sample sizes with manageable variance.
Transparency First
Our current model has been trained and tested on vast amounts of data since the 2017-18 NBA season. The current prediction model has proven incredibly successful when placed against pre-game market odds in the past. We gladly share our model's prediction results since the beginning of the 2024-25 season, however due to the recent changes in NBA gameplay, our model's results are limited to the past season.
Model Logic Insights
Our predictive engine is built on a foundation of advanced machine learning—primarily using the XGBoost algorithm—trained exclusively on real NBA historical data. It evaluates each game through a deep stack of engineered features such as team form, pace-adjusted efficiency, lineup strength, rest differential, and home-court dynamics. Unlike conventional models that rely heavily on sportsbook lines or public betting data, our system generates true win probabilities in a vacuum—identifying edges where the market diverges. This is especially powerful in underdog situations, where the model detects overlooked value that sportsbooks miss. The result is a strategic, evidence-backed forecast built on data, not hype.
Long-Term Profits
Although it can safely identify juicy underdog odds, this model is not a get-rich-quick scheme. It is a long-tail value strategy for bettors looking to: Consistently beat sportsbook lines Scale intelligently with risk-adjusted betting Build wealth through high-confidence, data-driven wagers If used responsibly, and with a plan like this, your model isn’t just making picks—it’s delivering an investment system that rivals traditional asset classes in return potential.